普华永道分析,人工智能将创造更多工作岗位

2018-07-18 11:45

小弈编译

(本文为小弈自动翻译)

[(Title)] Artificial intelligence will create as many jobs as it destroys, according to a PwC analysis.


The likes of Elon Musk and Bill Gates have made repeated doomsday warnings about artificial intelligence becoming more skilled at humans at just about everything.

埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)和比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)等人曾多次发布关于人工智能的世界末日警告。

So it's little surprise that people are scared about a post-AI future where a mostly jobless population subsists on universal basic income while  rich people own and operate all the robots.

因此,人们害怕后人工智能的未来,因为大多数失业人口都靠普遍基本收入生存,而富人拥有和操作所有的机器人,这毫不奇怪。

But a new report from consultancy firm  PwC joins a growing chorus of more cautious economic forecasts that suggest the future is brighter than we might think.

但咨询公司普华永道(PwC)的一份新报告也加入了越来 越多的谨慎经济预测,这些预测表明,未来比我们想象的要光明。

Looking at the UK, PwC found that it's true that robots will replace some jobs, especially in sectors like transport or manufacturing. AI will "displace" 38% of transport jobs, and 30% of manufacturing jobs, according to the report.

普华永道(PwC)从英国的角度发现,机器人将替代某些工作,特别是在交通或制造等行业,这是真的。

But other sectors will actually see greater job creation thanks to AI, evening out the balance. Only 12% of jobs in healthcare will be displaced by AI, while 34% will be created, PwC predicts.

但其他行业实际上会因人工智能而创造更多的就业机会。 普华永道预测,只有12%的医疗保健工作将被人工智能取代,而34%的工作将被创造。

The upshot is that AI will create as many jobs as it destroys, when evened out across different sectors.

其结果是,当不同部门持平时,人工智能将打破它创造尽可能多的工作岗位。

The report said: "Our estimates suggest that AI will not lead to technological unemployment as we project that it will displace around 20% of existing UK jobs by 2037, but create a similar number.

该报告说:“我们的估计表明,AI不会导致技术失业,因为我们预计到2037年它将减少约20%的英国现有就业机会,但创造类似数字。”

"In absolute terms, around 7 million existing jobs are projected to be displaced, but around 7.2 million are projected to be created, giving a net jobs boost of around 0.2 million."

"按绝对值计算,现有的约700万个工作岗位预计会流离失所,但预计将创造约720万个职位,使净就业人数增加大约20万人"。

The OECD was even more conservative about job displacement  in a report earlier this year. The economic organisation concluded that just 14% of jobs in its member countries were at risk of automation.

今年早些时候,经合组织在一份报告中更保守地指出,成员国只有14%的就业机会面临自动化的风险。

Both PwC and the OECD suggested that sectors that would benefit the most from AI, or are at least risk from automation, are those that involve complex, specialised tasks and people. This includes:

普华永道和经合组织都建议,对人工智能中获益最多或至少面临低自动化风险的部门,是涉及复杂、专门任务和人员的部门,其中包括:教育、科学技术工作、信息和通信、住宿和食品服务。

Sectors that will do badly include those that involve repetitive, administrative tasks such as:

容易被替代的包括那些涉及重复性的行政任务的部门,如:金融和保险、零售、施工、公共行政、施工、运输、制造业。

Here are the full UK numbers from PwC showing AI job creation and displacement in different sectors:


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