[(Title)] Construction set for its biggest fall since the global financial crisis.

Australia's building commencements, fuelled by investor apartment construction, look like heading from boom to bust, according to forecaster BIS Oxford Economics.

根据预测机构国际清算中心牛津经济研究所的数据，澳大利亚的建筑开工项目由投资者公寓建设推动，看起来将要从繁荣走向萧条。

In a reality check for investors who bought at the top of the apartment boom, BIS is predicting the biggest correction since the global financial crisis hit in 2008, with housing starts set to fall by almost 23 per cent by 2020.

在对那些在公寓繁荣顶端买进的投资者进行现状核实时，BIS预计，2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，市场将出现最大回升，到2020年，住房市场将下降近23%。

Associate director Adrian Hart told the ABC's AM program that the slump would be led by high-density dwelling construction, which is set to halve over the next two years.

副主任阿德里安·哈特告诉ABC的AM计划，衰退将会由高密度的住房建设牵头，这一项目将在未来两年内减少一半。

"What we're seeing is that what goes up tends to come down. It is a bust in residential apartments in the high density segment. But you have to look at how far it's come up," Mr Hart said.

哈特说：“我们所看到的，是一直在上升的趋势总有一天会下降。高密度住宅公寓得到了爆炸式的发展，但你得看看它上升多久了。”

"It's a hard thing to shake but you just have to look at the data.

“只需要看看数据就能知道。你可以看到，房价停滞不前，价格效应将真正开始影响投资者的行为，而这些政策一直试图控制房地产市场里的投机因素。”

"You can see that house prices have stagnated and that price effect is really going to start influencing investor behaviour on top of all the polices which have been trying to keep the speculative element of the housing market under control."

BIS predicts the fall in dwelling commencements will outweigh marginal growth in non-residential activity and will push the total value of building starts down by 10 per cent.

国际清算银行预测，住宅开工量的下降将超过非住宅活动的边际增长，并将使建筑起步的总价值下降10％。

While non-residential building commencements are expected to remain at record highs, Mr Hart warns the residential bust could have fallout for the rest of the economy.

哈特警告说，虽然非住宅楼房开始有望保持创纪录的高位，但住宅泡沫破裂可能会给经济其余部分带来影响。

"The building sector is switching from being a driver of strong growth to a drag on the economy," Mr Hart said.

哈特说：“建筑业正从强劲增长的驱动力转向对经济的拖累。

"Residential building activity is set for a sharp decline.

“住宅楼宇活动将会急剧下降。

"Along with its multiplier effects on industries such as construction, manufacturing and retailing, the Australian economy needs other investment drivers to support job growth and employment.

“除了对建筑、制造和零售等行业的乘数效应外，澳大利亚经济还需要其他投资驱动因素来支持就业增长。”