[(Title)] The future of America looks a lot like Chicago .

Of all America's major cities, Chicago may be unique. The rest of the nation — particularly newer, faster-growing cities — should pay close attention to its evolution, because the future of America looks a lot like Chicago.

美国其它地区，尤其是更新的、增长较快的城市，应该密切关注自己的演变步伐，因为美国城市的未来可能会和芝加哥非常相似。

While Chicago has a vibrant core, it's not as dauntingly expensive as New York or San Francisco. Chicago lacks the population growth that Sun Belt metros like Houston and Atlanta have, but it is no symbol of Rust Belt decline like Detroit has been.

虽然芝加哥有一颗充满活力的内核，但它并不像纽约或旧金山那样贵得吓人。芝加哥的人口增长不比休斯顿和亚特兰大这类光照丰富的地区，但它也没有展示出底特律“铁锈地带”的迹象。它是如何保持这一较可持续的中庸之道的呢?

How did it achieve this relatively sustainable happy medium?

As an Atlantan, I recognize that Chicago also got big very quickly, and then it got old. In the late 19th and early 20th century, it was one of the fastest-growing cities in the world.

作为一个亚特兰大人，我认识到，芝加哥也是扩张很快的大城市，后来慢慢衰减。19世纪末和20世纪初的芝加哥是世界上增长最快的城市之一。芝加哥的快速增长随着大萧条的开始而停止，只有在人口增长减缓、城市开始老龄化的情况下，它的一些问题才变得明显。

Chicago's rapid growth halted with the onset of the Great Depression, and only once its population growth slowed and the city began to age did some of its problems became apparent.

Fast-growing metro areas in the South are too new for some of the problems that have come to define Chicago, but it's unlikely that any city will be immune.

南方快速发展的都市区对于定义芝加哥的一些问题来说太新了，但任何城市都不可幸免。 

The big picture of Chicago's modern troubles is clear. The city is losing population. Factory jobs largely left the cities, taking middle-class employment with them.

芝加哥现代困境的大局是清楚的，城市人口正在减少，工厂工作主要离开城市，并带着中产阶级就业。芝加哥作为一个铁路城市，随着美国的增长从铁路发展到道路，开始变得不那么重要，因为寒冷的天气使得很多人不想搬到这里，东北部和中西部的大部分地区都是如此。

Chicago boomed as a railroad city, and as American growth evolved from rails to roads, Chicago became less essential. Cold weather deters some from moving or staying there, as it has for most places in the Northeast and the Midwest.

It's a high-tax city. And then modern Chicago has unique governance challenges, from an overhang of pension and debt obligations to a high rate of unsolved crime.

它是一个高税城市；现代芝加哥面临着独特的治理挑战，包括过高的养老金和债务，以及到大量未破解的犯罪案件。

But demographics tell a more nuanced story. Chicago continues to add young, affluent households in its urban core, just like many other cities across the country.

但人口统计则说明了一个更加细微的故事。芝加哥继续把年轻、富裕的家庭纳入其城市核心，就像全国许多其他城市一样。上世纪90年代，中国新增了许多墨西哥移民，芝加哥在墨西哥移民进入美国的时候遭受了苦难，10年前最终出现了逆转。其人口净减少主要是由两个因素造成的：黑人家庭的稳定流出，然后是白人人口老化，导致白人人口损失。

It added a lot of Mexican immigrants in the 1990s, and Chicago suffered when Mexican immigration to the U.S. declined and ultimately reversed 10 years ago.

Its net population loss is primarily due to two factors: a steady outflow of black households, and then white population loss associated with an aging white population. On balance,

Chicago might be a metro that's seen as struggling at 9.5 million people but would be thriving at 6 million people.

芝加哥是个大都市，当它的人口达到950万人时就深受其难，而人口600万时则能茁壮发展。

That latter point is a cautionary tale for metros like Dallas, Houston and Atlanta, each of which will have more than 6 million people in a few years. Early-stage growth is a lot easier and happier than the costs associated with sustainability.

对于像达拉斯，休斯顿和亚特兰大这样的地铁来说，后一点是一个值得警惕的故事，它们每个都将在几年内拥有超过600万人。早期阶段的增长比与可持续性相关的成本更容易，更快乐。

These metros have boomed in large part because they offered cheap, brand-new suburban single-family homes in the late 20th century.

这些地铁在很大程度上蓬勃发展，因为他们在20世纪后期提供廉价、全新的郊区单户住宅。在很大程度上，这意味着白人家庭购买可负担得起的新型单一家庭住房，并在新的基础设施和低税收的社区购买。我们还没有看到这些社区是否仍然可以持续，因为这些家庭年龄和继续搬迁，住房和基础设施年龄增加，税收增加，而政府需要花费更多在维修上。

In large part that meant white families buying affordable brand-new single-family homes in communities with new infrastructure and low taxes.

We haven't yet seen if those communities remain sustainable as those families age and move on, the housing stock and infrastructure ages, and taxes go up as governments need to spend more on maintenance.

Over the past 20 years, the white population in its public school system has fallen by a third. Over the same period, the black and Hispanic population in the system has almost tripled.

过去20年来，公立学校系统中的白人人口减少了三分之一，同期，该制度中的黑人和西班牙裔人口几乎增加了两倍。

In 2016, this district voted for Hillary Clinton for president, reversing a long period of Republican dominance.

2016年，本区选举希拉里·克林顿为总统，扭转了共和党长期以来的优势。

What happens when Cobb and other counties like it transition over from largely homogeneous white Republican-dominated counties to diverse, Democratic-leaning counties with growing costs from suburban poverty and aging infrastructure?

当科布等州从基本均质白人占主导地位的州过渡到由郊区贫穷和老化的基础设施成本日增的多样化民主倾斜州时，会发生什么情况？它们还是首选的目的地，还是会在其他地铁地区为较富裕的城市核心或更新的地方避而不管它们？

Will they still be destinations of choice, or will they be avoided for more affluent urban cores or newer places in other metro areas?

Chicago today is a mature metro area with an island of affluence in its center, a moderate number of thriving suburbs, large swathes of neglect and decline, and high levels of racial and socioeconomic inequality.

今天的芝加哥是一个成熟的都市区，中心有一个富裕的岛屿，中等数量的繁荣的郊区，大片被疏忽、衰落的地区，以及严重的种族和社会经济不平等问题。

Many Sun Belt metros currently seen as success stories could end up with a similar fate — unless they emulate how Chicago maintained its successes, and avoid how Chicago went wrong.

许多被当作成功故事的太阳带的大都市最终可能会遭遇类似的命运，除非他们借鉴芝加哥，学习它们的成功方式，同时避免犯下芝加哥如犯过的错误。