[(Title)] Australian dollar falls to 20-month low; Trump, rate hikes and weak GDP could sink it further.

The Australian dollar has tumbled to a 20-month low, and there are several reasons why it may drop even further this week.

澳元跌至20个月低点，本周可能会进一步下跌，原因如下：

The local currency started falling, from last week's high of 73.5 US cents, after Westpac, Suncorp and Adelaide Bank increased their mortgage lending rates.

在西太银行、国威银行和阿德莱德银行提高抵押贷款利率之后，当地货币开始下跌，从上周73.5美分的高点开始下跌。

Adding to the downward pressure was Canada and the United States ending their negotiations last week without agreeing to a new trade deal.

加拿大和美国在上周结束了谈判，但没有达成新的贸易协议，这进一步加剧了下降的压力。

The Australian dollar was buying 71.9 US cents at 4:55pm (AEST).

In the next few days, Australians will get a clearer idea of how the economy is faring, with the release of GDP (Wednesday), trade balance (Thursday) and home loan figures (Friday).

在接下来的几天里，随着GDP（星期三）、贸易收支（星期四）和家庭贷款数据（星期五）的发布，澳大利亚人将更清楚地了解经济发展情况。

"This week is a big one for domestic data, however, unless we get a very significant positive surprise, the Australian dollar will likely continue to struggle," said ANZ's head of foreign exchange research Daniel Been.

澳新银行外汇研究部主管丹尼尔·贝恩说：“然而，本周对于国内数据而言，意义重大，除非我们获得非常积极的惊喜，否则澳元很可能会继续贬值。”

The consensus view is that Australia's economy should grow by 0.7 per cent over the quarter, which would knock the annualised pace of growth below 3 per cent.

共识是，澳大利亚经济本季度应增长0.7%，这将使年增长率低于3%。

Currency experts from the big banks are also bracing for US President Donald Trump to sink the Australian dollar further, especially if he continues to inflame trade tensions with Canada and China.

各大银行的货币专家也准备让美国总统唐纳德.特朗普进一步降低澳元汇率，特别是如果他继续加剧与加拿大和中国的贸易紧张。

Mr Trump told US Congress, on Friday, he plans to sign a trade agreement with Mexico, after contentious negotiations with Canada failed to result in a trilateral deal to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

特朗普上周五对美国国会表示，在与加拿大进行有争议的谈判后，他计划与墨西哥签署一项贸易协定，但谈判未能达成一项三边协议，以修改北美自由贸易协定。

The US President was also expected to formally impose 25 per cent tariffs on $US200 billion worth of Chinese imports on September 6, when the public comment period expires.

预计9月6日，当公众舆论期到期时，美国总统还将正式对价值2,000亿美元的中国进口品征收25%的关税。

"The fragility of [emerging] markets amid rising uncertainty over President Trump's next move on trade policy means that the Australian dollar looks vulnerable to the downside," NAB's senior foreign exchange strategist, Rodrigo Catril, said.

澳大利亚国民银行高级外汇策略师罗德里戈·卡特里尔表示：“由于特朗普下一个贸易政策举措的不确定性加大，（新兴市场）的脆弱性，意味着澳元看上去容易遭受下行打击。”

The Reserve Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday, but hardly any economists are expecting a rate hike in the foreseeable future.

欧洲央行将于周二宣布其利率决定，但几乎没有经济学家预计在可预见的将来加息。

The RBA is expected to keep the official cash rate on hold at the record low 1.5 per cent for the second year in a row.

预计非洲区域局将连续第二年将官方现金利率维持在创纪录的1.5%的低水平。

But there is a much higher chance Commonwealth Bank, ANZ and NAB may impose out-of-cycle mortgage rate hikes.

不过，联邦银行、澳新银行以及澳大利亚国民银行实施周期外抵押贷款利率上调的可能性要高得多。

Mr Catril believes there is some, "likelihood that the other big three Australian Banks will sooner or later follow Westpac in lifting their variable mortgage rates … [and] the new week looks likely to be a tough one for the Australian dollar".

卡特里尔相信，也有一些可能性“澳大利亚三大银行可能早晚将跟随西太银行，共同实行多变的抵押贷款利率，而且对于澳大利亚兑美元汇率而言，本周看上去很可能是艰难的”。

Beyond this week's trade and economic uncertainties, Commonwealth Bank is "mildly bearish" when it comes to the local currency.

除了本周的贸易和经济不确定性之外，英联邦银行对当地货币还保持“温和悲观”的状态。

The Australian dollar is "likely to modestly depreciate" due to the "US dollar strength", "concerns global economic growth may slow more rapidly", and "modestly declining commodity prices as Chinese economic growth slows", according to Joseph Capurso,

成本效益分析的高级货币战略家约瑟夫·卡普尔索说，由于美元强势，澳元“可能略微贬值”，这意味着全球经济增长可能会更快放缓，而且“随着中国经济增长放缓，大宗商品价格略有下降”。

CBA's senior currency strategist.

After all, the Federal Reserve has already lifted US interest rates twice this year to a target range of 1.75 to 2 per cent, as a vote of confidence on the surging US economy.

毕竟，作为对美国经济飞速复苏的信任投票，美联储今年已经将美国利率上调了两倍，目标范围为1.75%至2%。

This means rates in the US are now higher than Australia, with higher rates attractive to big investors.

这意味着，美国的利率现在高于澳大利亚，高利率对大投资者有吸引力。

Analysts are expecting two more rate hikes for America by the end of this year, which could weaken the Australian dollar, making it an even less-attractive investment.

分析人士预计，到今年年底，美国将再增加两次加息，这会削弱澳元，使得澳元投资减少吸引力。