澳大利亚的经济增长在6月份升至3.4%

2018-09-07 14:02

小弈编译

(本文为小弈自动翻译)

[(Title)] Australia's economic growth jumps to 3.4 per cent in the June quarter.


Australian economic growth has picked up pace, growing by 3.4 per cent in the year to the end of June fuelled by consumer spending and financed by shrinking household savings.

澳大利亚经济增长步伐加快,到6月底为止增长了3.4%,这主要得益于消费者支出和家庭储蓄减少。

It is a step up from the 3.1 per cent year-on-year GDP growth in the March quarter and above the 3 per cent the Reserve Bank had forecast.

GDP与3月份相比,同比增长3.1%,增幅高于储备银行预测的3%。

It is also the fastest annual rate of growth since September 2012 during the height of the post-GFC mining boom.

这也是自2012年9月以来增长最快的一年。

However, the figure was flattered to a degree by a large downward revision of 2017 June quarter GDP (from 1 per cent to 0.7 per cent) which gave today's annual growth rate a handy head start.

不过,这一数字在一定程度上受到2017年6月GDP大幅下调(从1%下调到0.7%)的影响,这使今天的年经济增长率有了一个良好的开端。

In seasonally adjusted terms, the economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.9 per cent over the quarter, which was only marginally down on the strong and upwardly revised 1.1 per cent growth in the first three months of the year.

本季度经济增速高于预期增长0.9%,略低于本年头三个月强劲的1.1%的增长率。

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"The continued decline in the household savings rate to just 1 per cent in the second quarter, a low since 2007, suggests that at least some expenditure may be occurring at the expense of savings," RBC's Su-Lin Ong said.

RBC的Su-Lin Ong说:“第二季度家庭储蓄率继续下降至1%,这是自2007年以来的最低水平,这表明至少有一些支出可能以牺牲储蓄为代价。”

This time around, net exports contributed a more modest 0.2 percentage points. Residential construction was also another strong contributor.

这一次,净出口贡献了0.2个百分点。 住宅建筑也是另一个强有力的贡献者。

"Growth in domestic demand accounts for over half the growth in GDP, and reflected strength in household expenditure," ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said.

ABS首席经济学家布鲁斯霍克曼说:“国内需求的增长占GDP增长的一半以上,反映了家庭支出的强劲程度。”

"Domestic demand increased 0.6 per cent for the quarter, driven by a 0.7 per cent growth in household consumption, with increased expenditure on both discretionary and non-discretionary goods and services."

"本季度国内需求增长0.6%,受家庭消费增长0.7%的驱动,可自由支配和非自行酌定的货物和服务支出增加"。

Household consumption rose by 3 per cent over the year, while government consumption was stronger, up 5.1 per cent over the 2018 financial year.

家庭消费同比增长3%,政府消费上升,比2018年财政年度增长5.1%。

"Public investment remained at elevated levels reflecting continued work on infrastructure projects across the nation," Mr Hockman added.

霍克曼补充称:“公共投资依然处于高位,反映了全国各地基础设施项目的持续工作。”

"Australia's economy is strong, the fundamentals are good, momentum is continuing and these are encouraging numbers."

"澳大利亚的经济强劲,基本面良好,势头持续不断,这些数字令人鼓舞"。

However, a deeper dive into the figures shows that the consumption boom has again been financed by households eating into their savings.

然而,更深入地深入研究这些数字表明,消费热潮又由消费家庭为其储蓄所资助。

The household saving ratio has tumbled to its lowest level in more than a decade. Savings as a ratio of income was more than 10 per cent in 2008. That has crashed to 1 per cent this quarter.

家庭储蓄率已降至十多年来的最低水平,2008年收入比率超过10%,今年季度的储蓄率已降至1%。

Wages growth continued to soften, with the compensation of employees growing by 0.7 per cent over the quarter, down from 1.1 per cent in the previous quarter and half the rate of growth late last year.

工资增长继续放缓,员工薪酬在本季度增长了0.7%,较上一季度的1.1%和去年下半年的增长率有所下降。

Average compensation per employee — which takes population growth out of the equation — continues to be anaemic, down to 0.1 per cent over the quarter.

每名员工的平均薪酬 - 人口增长率不计其数 - 仍然疲弱,在本季度下降至0.1%。

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"This indicates growth in employees is outgrowing wage rates," the ABS said.

ABS说:“这表明,雇员增长率高于工资增长率。”

ALP treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers said the second quarter's growth would mean little to Australian households that have seen their living standards go backwards.

ALP财政发言人表示,第二季度的增长对于生活水准倒退的澳大利亚家庭来说意义不大。

"For most Australians what's important is not a relatively strong GDP headline number, but stagnant wages and insecure work," Dr Chalmers said.

乔默斯说:“对于大多数澳大利亚人来说,重要的并不是相对强劲的国内生产总值,而是停滞不前的工资和不安全的工作。”

"Company profits have gone up more than five times faster than Australian wages."

"公司利润增长比澳大利亚工资快5倍"。

JP Morgan's Tom Kennedy said the RBA is unlikely to be too worried about growth throttling back a bit.

摩根大通(JP Morgan)的汤姆肯尼迪(Tom Kennedy)表示,澳联储不太可能过于担心经济增长会受到一些抑制。

"Today's print is consistent with our view that real GDP in 2018 would be heavily front-loaded, with growth to moderate through the second half of 2018 on the back of fading net exports and softer household spending," he said.

他说:“今天的发行版与我们的观点一致,即2018年的GDP上班你那增长快速,下半年保持缓和,因为净出口下降,家庭支出疲软。”

"It also adds a little more credibility to the RBA's guidance that the 'next move in rates is up' and suggests the chances of a meaningfully dovish shift anytime soon remain small. The strong start to the year means growth can step down a touch without threatening the RBA's 3.25 per cent over the year December 2018 forecast."

“这也为澳大利亚央行的指引增加了一点可信度,即”利率的下一步走势“上升,并表明短期内有意义的温和转变的可能性仍然很小。“

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