[(Title)]New round of U.S.-China tariffs raise fears of an economic Cold War

China said Tuesday it would retaliate for President Donald Trump's latest tariff salvo, risking further U.S. trade actions that could result in what some analysts are calling an economic Cold War.

中国周二表示，将对特朗普最近一次关税计划进行报复，这有可能引发美国进一步贸易行动。

By next week, the United States and China appear likely to be on the brink of slapping tariffs on their entire goods trade, which exceeds $635 billion annually.

到下周，美国和中国可能处于整个商品贸易征收关税的巅峰，年关税超过6350亿美元。

Chinese officials in Beijing said they would meet the 10 percent tariffs that Trump announced Monday on nearly $200 billion in imports with similar measures on $60 billion in U.S. products.

特朗普周一宣布将对中国出口到美国的2000亿美元的商品征收10%的关税，中方表示将会对来自美国的600美元的商品采取相似的措施。

If that occurs, Trump has said he will "immediately" begin the process of applying tariffs to all Chinese items entering the United States.

如果出现这种情况，特朗普表示，他将“立即”开始对所有进入美国的中国产品征收关税。

The showdown comes as Chinese officials were preparing to travel to Washington for new talks aimed at resolving the months-old trade dispute.

这场争论发生在中国官员准备前往华盛顿参加旨在解决数月之久的贸易争端的新谈判之际。

Negotiations earlier this year failed to make much progress and it remains unclear whether Chinese officials will resume bargaining in the wake of the president's latest escalation.

今年早些时候的谈判未能取得重大进展，目前尚不清楚的是，在最近的关税升级后中方是否会继续谈判。

As hopes dim for an early end to the conflict, the likelihood grows that the two countries are moving toward some sort of commercial divorce.

由于对尽早结束冲突的希望渺茫，两国走向某种商业关系破裂的可能性越来越大。

The Trump administration is imposing tariffs on $200 billion more in Chinese goods starting next week, escalating a trade war between the world's two biggest economies and raising prices on consumer goods ranging from handbags to bicycle tires.

特朗普政府下星期开始对2,000亿美元的中国商品征收关税，加剧了世界两大经济体之间的贸易竞争，并提高了手提包到自行车轮胎等消费品价格。

The tariffs will start at 10 percent and rise to 25...

关税将从10%开始，升至25%。

and another centered on the United States," said Aaron Friedberg, a professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University, who handled China policy as an aide to Vice President Richard Cheney in the George W. Bush administration.  "It's heading toward a bifurcated global economy."

普林斯顿大学政治和国际事务教授艾伦·弗里德伯格说：“全球经济正走向一个分崩离析的场面。”

Such a fundamental reshaping of the U.S.-China commercial relationship after nearly four decades of growing interdependence would ripple through the global economy, shaking financial markets, reordering business supply chains and perhaps even raising the danger of military conflict, analysts said.

分析人士说，经过近40年的相互依赖，中美商业关系的这种根本性改变将波及全球经济，动摇金融市场，重新调整商业供应链，甚至可能增加军事冲突的危险。

The two countries' annual goods trade, which has almost doubled since 2006, is roughly equal to the output of Argentina, which is widely considered to have the world's 21st-largest economy.

自2006年以来，两国的年度商品贸易几乎翻了一番，大致相当于阿根廷的产量，阿根廷被广泛认为是世界第21大经济体。

For now, a genuine breakdown in the U.S.-China relationship, affecting roughly 40 percent of the global economy, remains a long-term prospect.

目前，美中关系的真正破裂大约会影响到全球经济的40%。

The immediate prospect is for the trade dispute to percolate for the remainder of this year, gradually ratcheting up the economic pain in both countries.

当前的趋势是，今年余下的时间里，贸易争端将逐渐增加波及范围。

Trump says the tariffs are needed to compel China to abandon a host of unfair trade practices, including making American companies surrender their trade secrets in return for access to the Chinese market and subsidizing state firms in advanced-technology industries.

特朗普表示，需要征收关税来迫使中国放弃一系列不公平的贸易做法，包括让美国公司交出商业秘密，以换取进入中国市场的机会，以及补贴高科技行业的国有公司。

"The purpose of the tariffs is to modify China's behavior," Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on CNBC. The real purpose is not to end up with tariffs. The real purpose is to end up with a level playing field so that American firms can compete properly."

美国商务部长威尔伯·罗斯就CNBC表示：“关税的目的是改变中国的行为。真正的目的不是最终加征关税，而是最终有一个让美国公司能够公平竞争的环境。”

The newest tariffs will hit consumer goods such as appliances and auto parts, but Ross insisted the impact would be so slight that "nobody's going to actually notice it at the end of the day."

最新关税将影响消费品，如电器和汽车零部件，但罗斯坚称，影响十分微小，以至于没有人会注意到价格的变化。

That's unlikely to be true in every case.

现实并非如此。

The 25 percent tariffs that Trump imposed on imported washing machines in January quickly translated into sticker shock for shoppers.

今年1月，特朗普对进口洗衣机征收的25%的关税，迅速转化为对购物者的冲击。

Over the past year, retail prices rose 13.6 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

据美国劳工统计局的数据，零售价上涨了13.6%。

In the short run, the president's newest tariffs will be weaker than his earlier trade actions, as a strong dollar allows Americans to overlook any modest price increase on Chinese goods.

从短期来看，总统的最新关税行动将比他早先的贸易行动弱，因为强势的美元允许美国人忽视对中国商品的任何适度的价格上涨。

The president announced Monday that he will hit up to $200 billion in Chinese goods - itemized on a 194-page list - with a 10 percent tariff starting Sept. 24.

美国总统周一宣布，自9月24日起至多达到2,000亿美元的中国商品——194页清单上的商品——将征收10%的关税。

That's a smaller tax than the 25 percent levy he applied to $50 billion of imports from China in July, as well as the foreign steel and aluminum shipments that he began taxing in March.

这比7月份他向来自中国的500亿美元进口品征收的25%的税率低，同样低于今年3月开始对国外钢铁和铝材运输征收的税。

Changes in the value of the U.S. dollar and China's currency over the course of this year are certain to sap some of the new tariffs' power.

今年美元和中国货币的价值变化必定会削弱部分新的关税影响。

Since early February, the dollar has gained more than 6 percent against the Chinese yuan, a move that could erode more than half of the new tariffs' impact.

自2月初以来，美元兑人民币汇率上涨了6％以上，此举可能削弱新关税影响的一半以上。

"This shows you how complex it is to narrow the trade deficit," said Torsten Slok, chief international economist for Deutsche Bank Securities.

德意志银行(首席国际经济学家托尔斯坦·斯洛克表示：“这表明减少贸易逆差有多复杂。”

"Tariffs are a small part of the picture.

“关税是总体的一小部分。

There are many other moving parts and the rising dollar is offsetting some of the effects."

还有许多其他变动部分，美元升值正在抵消一些影响。

The drop in China's currency likewise will exaggerate the effect of China's retaliatory tariffs, making goods imported from the United States even more expensive for Chinese customers.

人民币的下跌同样会扩大中国报复性关税的影响，使中国消费者购买从美国进口的商品变得更加昂贵。”

"American exporters now face a double whammy in terms of their competitiveness in the Chinese markets due to China's retaliatory tariffs and the strengthening of the dollar," said economist Eswar Prasad of Cornell University, who formerly was the head of the International Monetary Fund's China division.

康奈尔大学的经济学家埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德说:“由于中国的报复性关税和美元升值，美国出口商现在在中国市场的竞争力方面面临双重打击。”他曾是国际货币基金组织中国分部的负责人。

Under Trump's plan, the tariff pain on the $200 billion batch of Chinese goods will grow on Jan. 1, 2019, rising to 25 percent from the original 10 percent.

根据特朗普的计划，2019年1月1日，中国2,000亿美元商品关税将持续增长，由原来的10%上升至25%。

If there remains little sign of diplomatic progress by that point, more companies may switch their orders from Chinese suppliers to factories in countries such as Vietnam or India, executives said.

”据高管表示，如果目前外交进展不大，那么更多的公司可能会将订单从中国的供应商转移到越南或印度等国的工厂。

"We have not yet seen any significant shift in the customer supply chains.

"我们尚未看到客户供应链出现任何重大变化。

However, if the situation continues for any amount of time, we do expect customers to diversify their supply chains and perhaps some of the trade patterns might change," Rajesh Subramaniam, executive vice president of FedEx, told investors last week.

不过，如果形势持续一段时间，我们确实希望消费者能够实现供应链的多样化，也许某些贸易模式可能会发生变化，”联邦快递FedEx执行副总裁拉杰什·苏布拉马尼亚姆上周对投资者表示。

As the president pursues his uncompromising approach to China, business leaders are growing increasingly frustrated.

眼看总统对中国采取不妥协的态度，企业领导人越来越感到沮丧。

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers and the National Retail Federation were among those blasting the administration's use of tariffs as costly and counterproductive.

美国商会，全国制造商协会和全国零售联合会将政府使用关税视为昂贵和适得其反的行为。

"We are disappointed that the administration seems to continue to misunderstand the complexities and reality of global trade," said Ed Black, president of the Computer & Communications Industry Association.

计算机和通信行业协会会长Ed Black说：“我们感到失望的是，政府似乎继续误解了全球贸易的复杂性和现实。”

"There are many legitimate trade concerns U.S. companies have in the global marketplace, but tariffs are unwieldy and often counterproductive to address those problems."

“在全球市场上，有许多美国公司对贸易的合法担忧，但关税是笨拙的，而且往往适得其反，以解决这些问题。”

China's Foreign Ministry said it will respond to Trump's latest round of tariffs with duties on more than 5,200 types of American imports, including industrial parts, chemicals and medical instruments.

中国外交部表示，将对特朗普的最新一轮关税做出回应。

Trump has promised to respond to Chinese retaliation with further tariffs on the remainder of Chinese imports - which he has variously characterized as $267 billion or $257 billion worth of products.

特朗普承诺应对中国的报复，对中国剩余的进口品征收进一步的关税——2670亿美元或2570亿美元的产品。

Goldman Sachs published a research note Tuesday saying that announcement could come within "the next couple of weeks" with imposition sometime early next year.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)周二发表了一份研究报告，称该声明将在“未来几周”或是明年初的某个时候实施。

"If he does that, we're just headed inevitably for an economic Cold War with China," said economist Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "Down this path, we will see a limitation of all economic contact."

彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)经济学家表示：“走这条路，我们将看到所有经济接触的限制。”

The administration also has taken steps to discourage Chinese investment in the United States.

中国政府还采取措施阻止中国在美国的投资。

Congress this year passed legislation, with the backing of the White House, to scrutinize more closely a wider array of potential Chinese acquisitions of American technology companies.

今年国会在白宫的支持下，通过了一项立法，更加仔细地审查中国可能收购美国技术公司的各种可能性。

"People are very focused on tariffs.

“人们非常关注关税。

But that's just one element," said Michael Hirson, director for Asia at the Eurasia Group.

不过，这只是其中的一个因素，”欧亚集团亚洲区主任迈克尔·希森说。

"The non-tariff measures are equally important and may be a longer lasting legacy."

"非关税措施同样重要，可能是长期遗留下来的问题"。

Some administration hard-liners would be content to see the trade and investment restrictions lead to a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies, Hirson said.

希森说，一些政府强硬派会满足于看到贸易和投资限制导致美国和中国经济脱钩。

That could be costly, according to Caroline Freund, director of macro trade and investment at the World Bank.

世界银行宏观贸易和投资部门主管卡罗琳·弗洛伊德表示，这可能会付出高昂的代价。

If 25 percent tariffs were applied to all U.S.-China trade, and investors withdrew, the U.S. economy would be 1.6 percent - or $320 billion - smaller than under normal trading circumstances while China would lose 3.5 percent of its gross domestic product, according to a presentation Freund gave Monday at the Peterson Institute.

根据弗伦德周一在彼得森研究所发表的一份报告，如果对所有美中贸易征收25 %的关税，投资者退出，美国经济将比正常贸易情况下减少1.6 %，即3200亿美元，而中国将损失3.5 %的国内生产总值。

At the White House on Tuesday, Trump said that while he might make a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping "at some point," his focus for now remains on tariffs.

周二，特朗普在白宫表示，尽管他可能会与中国国家主席习近平“在某个时期”达成协议，但他目前仍把重点放在关税上。

"We are always open to talking. But we have to do something," the president said.

“我们愿意交流。但是，我们必须做一些事情，”总统说。