[(Title)]Alibaba's Jack Ma Says U.S.-China Trade War Could Last 20 Years.

The U.S.-China trade war is here to stay.

美中贸易战将会持续。

That was Alibaba founder Jack Ma’s  to investors yesterday at the Chinese tech giant’s annual investor conference in Hangzhou.

这是阿里巴巴创始人马云昨天在杭州举行的中国科技巨头年度投资者大会上向投资者说的。

Economic conflict between the two nations will persist long after Donald Trump exits the White House, Ma predicted, and is “going to last a long time, maybe 20 years….

马云预测，在唐纳德·特朗普离开白宫后，两国之间的经济冲突将会持续很长时间，可能会持续20年。

It’s going to be a mess [because] it’s not a trade war, it’s about competition between two countries.”

“这将会是一场混乱，因为这不是贸易战，而是两国之间的竞争。"

It’s hard to dispute Ma’s assessment given the tit-for-tat trade moves in Washington and Beijing this week.

鉴于本周中美针锋相对的贸易举动，很难质疑马云的这个评估。

On Monday, Trump announced  of 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, effective September 24, and vowed to hike the rate to 25% next year if the U.S. and China can’t close a trade deal.

周一，特朗普宣布，从9月24日起，将向价值2000亿美元的中国进口商品增加10 %的关税，并发誓如果美国和中国不能达成贸易协议，明年将税率提高到25 %。

immediately by slapping new duties on $60 billion of American goods.

On Tuesday, Trump  that further action by China would provoke “great and fast economic retaliation” from the U.S., and later repeated his threat to impose 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports.

周二，特朗普声称中国的进一步行动将会招致美国“更大和更快的经济报复”，随后再次威胁对所有中国进口商品征收25 %的关税。

“We don’t want to do it, but probably ” he said.

“我们不想这么做，但很可能，”他说。

Beijing hinted it won’t send negotiators for proposed talks with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

中方暗示不会派谈判代表参加与财政部长史蒂文·穆钦的拟议会谈。

If Ma is right, the implications are enormous.

如果马云的猜想是对的，其影响是巨大的。

Until this week, the prevailing view among investors, analysts and global business leaders remained that the U.S.-China faceoff is less a war than a “spat”—an overly dramatic lovers’ quarrel between two parties who know they’re too dependent on each other to ever part.

直到本周，投资者、分析师和全球商界领袖的主流观点仍然是，美中对峙与其说是一场战争，不如说是一场“口角”，这是两党之间一场“激烈的情侣间的争吵”，他们知道彼此过于依赖，永远不会分开。

The new view is that maybe the two parties really can’t stand each other, and are willing—determined, even—to reduce their inter-dependence even if that leaves both worse off.

新的观点是，也许双方真的无法忍受对方，并且愿意——甚至下定决心——减少他们的相互依赖，即使这会让双方都变得更糟。

On , veteran China watcher Christopher Balding channeled Gwyneth Paltrow: “The trade war should…be reframed as a .”

资深中国观察家克里斯托弗·巴尔丁引导格温妮丝·帕特洛:“贸易战应该……被重新定义为一场战争。"

For U.S. tech companies, the consequences of uncoupling with China could be dire.

对美国科技公司来说，与中国脱离关系的后果可能是可怕的。

The FANGS—Facebook, ,  and Google’s parent Alphabet—won’t suffer.

Facebook和谷歌母公司不会受到影响，并在中国被封锁。

and  are blocked in China.

Amazon has only sliver of China’s e-commerce market, and Netflix has largely given up on China.

亚马逊在中国的电子商务市场上只占很小一部分，Netflix已经在很大程度上放弃了中国。

But  CEO Chuck Robbins acknowledged this week that a protracted trade war would have a “” impact on many of the company’s core products.

但是首席执行官查克·罗宾斯本周承认，旷日持久的贸易战将对公司的许多核心产品产生“影响”。

Cisco, Dell, , , ,  and Unisys source  their products and components from China.

And as China runs out of U.S. imports on which to slap retaliatory tariffs, how long before  out of Apple?

This article first appeared in Data Sheet, Fortune’s daily newsletter on the top tech news.

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