[(Title)]Hong Kong's surging dollar sends warning on housing market

HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - A shock jump in Hong Kong's currency is signaling a decade-long liquidity party is coming to an end.

港币的大幅升值标志着长达十年的全球流动性逐渐结束。

That may be bad news for the city's housing market.

这对该市的房地产市场来说可能是个坏消息。

The Hong Kong dollar surged as much as 0.6 per cent on Friday, its biggest gain in 15 years, and extended gains on Monday (Sept 24).

上周五，港元飙升0.6 %，创下15年来最大涨幅，并在周一( 9月24日)扩大了涨幅。

While traders gave differing reasons for the move, the common theme was concern that the city's borrowing costs will catch up with those in the US as the Federal Reserve continues to hike rates.

尽管交易员给出了不同的理由，但共同的主题是担心随着美联储继续加息，该市的借贷成本将赶上美国的借贷成本。

The chance of local banks raising the so-called prime rate for the first time since 2006 is "extremely high," Financial Secretary Paul Chan said.

财政司Paul Chan表示，自2006年以来，当地银行首次提高所谓的最佳利率的可能性“极高”。

A currency peg with the US, open financial borders and a booming economy meant Hong Kong property was one of the greatest beneficiaries of ultra-low lending costs in the wake of the global financial crisis.

与美国的联系汇率、开放的金融边界和蓬勃发展的经济意味着香港房地产是全球金融危机后超低贷款成本的最大受益者之一。

Home prices rose more than 170 per cent in the past decade making the city the world's least affordable.

在过去十年中，房价上涨了170 %以上，使这座城市成为世界上最难负担得起的城市。

Citigroup and CLSA are among those warning of a reversal on expectations that mortgage servicing costs will rise.

花旗集团和里昂证券也发出警告，称抵押贷款服务成本将会上升。

"The market has underestimated the pace of interest rate increases in Hong Kong," said Kevin Lai, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd.

大和资本市场香港有限公司亚洲(日本除外)首席经济学家Kevin Lai表示:“市场低估了香港利率上升的速度。”

This "will bring pressure to the property market and leveraged home buyers."

这将会给房地产市场和杠杆购房者带来压力。"

After trading at the weak end of the band for months, prompting repeated interventions by the city's de facto central bank, the Hong Kong dollar rocketed into the stronger half of the spectrum on Friday.

The currency rose as much as 0.17 per cent on Monday before paring to 0.03 per cent as of 10:34am, at 7.8091 per dollar.

周一，人民币汇率上涨了0.17 %，截至上午10 : 34，汇率降至0.03 %，为每美元7.8091英镑。

The three-month interbank rate, known as Hibor, was last at 2.125 per cent, its highest in almost a decade and nearly triple the level it was a year ago.

三个月银行间同业拆借利率( Hibor )最后达到2.125 %，是近十年来的最高水平，几乎是一年前水平的三倍。

A narrowing spread with US Libor is making a previously profitable trade of selling Hong Kong dollars to buy higher yielding US assets less appealing.

与美国伦敦银行同业拆借利率( Libor )的利差正在缩小，这使得以前有利可图的出售港元以购买收益率更高的美国资产的交易不再具有吸引力。

The currency's one-week forward points, an indicator of cash supply in the foreign-exchange market, touched the highest level since October 2007 on Monday before paring gains.

外汇市场现金供应的指标——人民币一周远期点数周一触及自2007年10月以来的最高水平，随后下跌。

One-year interest-rate swaps, which reflect the market outlook for Hong Kong dollar funding costs, climbed to the highest in nearly a decade.

反映港元融资成本市场前景的一年期利率掉期，攀升至近十年来的最高水平。

"The short-Hong Kong dollar carry trade has come to an end," said Ken Peng, an investment strategist at Citi Private Bank in Hong Kong.

花旗私人银行( Citi Private Bank )驻香港投资策略师Ken Peng表示:“港元空头套利交易已经走到尽头。”

"Friday's move suggests borrowing costs in Hong Kong have tightened a lot and will tighten further."

“周五的举措表明，香港的借贷成本已经大幅收紧，并将进一步收紧。"

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said in emailed comments that while it didn't want to comment on Friday's movement in the currency, "market participants generally view the elevated interbank interest rates as a contributing factor."

香港金融管理局在电子邮件评论中表示，虽然它不想评论周五的汇率变动，“市场参与者普遍认为银行间利率上升是一个促成因素。"

While residential prices in Hong Kong's secondary market have climbed 16 percent over the past 12 months, according to Centaline Property Agency, developers have begun to offer perks to accelerate sales.

据中原地产代理公司称，虽然香港二级市场的房价在过去12个月里上涨了16 %，但开发商已经开始提供额外补贴来加速销售。

Some are selling apartments at discounts, and others aren't providing mortgages due to concern that rising borrowing costs may increase defaults.

一些人以折扣出售公寓，另一些人则不提供抵押贷款，因为担心不断上升的借贷成本可能会增加违约。

Financial Secretary Chan said this month he sees signs the market is cooling.

财政司司长陈本月表示，他看到市场降温的迹象。

Predicting declines in Hong Kong's property market hasn't been a profitable exercise in the past, with a home-price slump in 2015-2016 quickly followed by record highs.

预测香港房地产市场的下跌在过去并不是一项有利可图的工作，2015 - 2016年房价暴跌后，很快就创下了历史新高。

But a rising prime rate could change the dynamic of demand for the city's housing.

但是上升的优惠利率可能会改变城市住房需求的动态。

"We expect banks to hike prime rate twice this year by a total of 50 basis points, as Hibor rises with a shrinking liquidity pool and Fed hikes," said Frank Lee, acting chief investment officer for North Asia at DBS Bank (HK) Ltd. "It will hurt property market sentiment."

星展银行（香港）有限公司北亚代理首席投资官Frank Lee表示:“我们预计银行今年将两次加息50个基点，因为银行同业拆息随着流动性萎缩和美联储加息而上升，这将损害房地产市场情绪。”