[(Title)]US Gasoline Prices Hit Seasonal 4-Year High as Oil Rises, but Demand Falters

Kristian Rouz — US gasoline prices are at their seasonal four-year high amid the recent increase in international oil prices, and consumers at the pump are starting to feel the squeeze — despite rising crude oil production and refining in the US.

在最近国际油价的上升中，美国的汽油价格处于季节性4年高位，而消费者开始感受到压力——尽管美国的原油生产和提炼有所上升。

Meanwhile, now that the summer vacation and driving season is over, the demand for fuel is gradually easing, pointing to a likely stabilization in gasoline prices.

与此同时，如今暑假和驾驶季节已经结束，对燃料的需求正在逐步放缓，这表明汽油价格可能趋于稳定。

According to the American Automobile Association, national gas price average stands at $2.867 a gallon ($0.75/liter), its seasonal highest since autumn of 2014.

据美国汽车协会的数据，全国平均汽油价格为每加仑2.867美元（约合0.75/升），为2014年秋季以来的季节性最高值。

This comes as the WTI oil price has increased to $72.30/bbl, while Brent, another global benchmark, rose to $81.99 in the face of the looming oil embargo against Iran.

WTI原油价格上涨至72.30美元/桶，而另一个全球基准布伦特原油价格上涨至81.99美元，面对即将对伊朗实施的石油禁运。

The data also suggests US oil prices are repeating the pattern in international, rather than domestic, oil prices, as Brent stands at its 4-year high as well, while US oil has already been at its current levels this past July.

该数据还表明，美国石油价格正在重复国际油价而非国内油价，因为布伦特原油也处于4年高点，而美国石油价格已经在7月份达到目前水平。

This partially explains President Donald Trump's concern with the rise in global oil prices; despite the recent gains, US oil production could stave off possible further gains in US fuel costs.

这在一定程度上解释了特朗普对全球油价上涨的担忧；尽管最近有所上升，但美国石油生产仍可能抵消美国燃料成本的进一步增长。

Trump said OPEC is manipulating the oil price to increase the fiscal revenues of its member countries at the expense of the rest of the world.

特朗普表示OPEC正在操纵石油价格，以牺牲世界其他地区为代价，增加其成员国的财政收入。

"We want them to stop raising prices," Trump said at the UN General Assembly earlier this week. "We want them to start lowering prices.

特朗普在本周早些时候的联合国大会上表示：“我们希望他们停止提高价格。我们希望他们开始降低价格。”

"However, higher oil prices are also stemming from a rise in international demand and the ongoing acceleration in global economic growth.

“然而，油价上涨还源于国际需求的上升和全球经济增长的持续加速。

According to OPEC data, Saudi Arabia's output is now only 320,000 barrels per day (bpd) below its 2016 high, while US oil production has increased from roughly 9 mln bpd to the current 11 mln bpd.

根据OPEC的数据，沙特的产量目前只有320,000桶，低于2016年的高水平，而美国石油产量则从约900万桶增长到目前的1100万桶。

Additionally, global fuel prices tend to be speculative and reactive with respect to certain political developments — such as the impending Iran oil embargo, even though Iran's supplies to the international markets have been subdued since the previous embargo was lifted back in 2015.

此外，尽管自2015年解除前一次禁运以来，伊朗对国际市场的供应一直受到抑制，但全球燃料价格往往对某些政治事态发展具有投机性和反应性——例如即将实施的伊朗石油禁运。

However, the rise in US gasoline prices comes as quite disheartening for many US consumers.

然而，美国汽油价格的上涨正值许多美国消费者相当沮丧之时。

According to the data from Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), traffic volumes eased by 0.3 percent year-on-year amid the rising oil and gasoline prices this summer.

根据联邦公路管理局（FHWA）的数据，随着今年夏天石油和汽油价格的上涨，交通量同比下降0.3%。

Typically, traffic volumes increase 2-3 percent annually; this figure was last recorded back in 2015 and 2016.

通常情况下，交通量每年增长2%至3%；这一数字在2015年和2016年出现回升。

Officials say the demand for fuel is easing.

官员们说，对燃料的需求正在放缓。

Government data suggests US gasoline consumption only rose 18,000 bpd in the first half of this year despite quicker economic growth, job creation, and lower unemployment.

政府数据显示，尽管经济增长迅速、创造更多就业机会、失业率较低，但美国今年上半年汽油消费仅上升了1.8万桶。

However, the rise in oil and fuel prices might turn out to be unsustainable over the coming 12 months, as US oil output is expected to surpass 12 mln bpd next year.

然而，石油和燃料价格的上涨在未来12个月内可能无法持续，因为预计美国明年的石油产量将超过1,200万亿桶。

This, coupled with the ongoing expansion in US refining and the construction of new pipelines, could contain further increases in oil prices.

这与美国的炼油和新管道建设不断扩张有关，可能遏制油价的进一步上涨。

While some analysts — including Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. and Trafigura Group — expect oil to surpass the $100/bbl mark next year, others say such expectations might be unsubstantiated.

虽然包括Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.和Trafigura Group在内的一些分析师预计明年石油价格将超过100美元/桶，但其他分析师表示这种预期可能没有根据。

"Another supply catalyst beyond Iran would likely be needed for prices to meaningfully break to the upside," a team of Goldman Sachs researchers wrote in a note.

高盛(GoldmanSachs)的一组研究人员在一份报告中写道：“伊朗以外的另一个供应催化剂很可能需要从价格到有意义的突破到上限。”

"As a result, we expect Brent prices to stabilize back in their $70-80/bbl range into year-end."

“因此，我们预计布伦特原油价格将在年底前稳定在70-80美元/桶的范围内。”

The lingering uncertainty in the international and domestic US energy markets might also drive US crude stockpiles up — which would eventually weigh on US oil prices heading into the new year, and offset the possible gains associated with the disruptions in global supply.

美国国际和国内能源市场持续存在的不确定性也可能推动美国原油库存增加 - 这将最终打压美国油价进入新的一年，并抵消与全球供应中断相关的可能收益。