[(Title)] US economy under Trump: Is it the best in history?.

Claim: President Trump says the US economy is the best it's ever been.

特朗普曾受现在的美国经济是最好的。

He has been repeating that message in the run-up to the mid-term elections in November, when voters choose members of both chambers of Congress, some state governors as well as state and local officials.

他在11月的中期选举前重复了这一信息，选民将在选举出国会两院议员、一些州长以及州和地方官员。

According to one estimate by the Washington Post in early September, the president had made the claim - or a variant of it - 40 times in the previous three months.

根据《华盛顿邮报》在9月初作出的一项估计，总统在过去三个月中已有40次提出这种说话（或其中一种变种）。

Reality Check verdict: Yes, the economy has been doing well - but there have been periods when it was even stronger.

美国咨询公司Reality Check的判断是：是的，当下经济表现良好-但是这并不是历史上最强劲的美国经济。

And there are some indicators that have not really improved - such as wage growth and household income.

还有一些指标并没有真正改善，如工资增长和家庭收入。

The growth in GDP - the value of goods and services in the economy - has been strong.

GDP增长(商品和服务在经济中的价值)一直强劲。2018年第二季度，GDP增长达到4.2%。这是几年来最好的，但低于2014年第三季度的4.9%。

It reached an annual rate of 4.2% for the second quarter of 2018.

That's the best for several years, but less than the 4.9% achieved in the third quarter of 2014.

And there were times in the 1950s and 1960s when GDP growth was even higher.

在20世纪50年代和1960年代，国内生产总值增长甚至更高。

"If you choose to look at the health of the economy based on GDP, Mr Trump's claims are suspect when compared to the national economic boom of the post-War years," says Megan Black, assistant professor of history at the London School of Economics.

伦敦经济学院历史学助理教授梅根·布莱克表示：“如果你选择以GDP为基础来审视经济的健康，特朗普的说法与战后时期的国民经济繁荣相比是令人怀疑的。战后经济出现巨大增长，最显著的是制造业，但也有农业、运输、贸易、金融、房地产和采矿业"。

"The post-War era saw tremendous economic growth, most notably in manufacturing, but also in agriculture, transportation, trade, finance, real estate and mining."

The same holds true for the rate of unemployment - another frequently used yardstick - which was measured at 3.7% in September this year.

同样的情况也适用于今年9月的3.7%失业率（另一个经常使用的衡量标准）。

Back in the 1950s, there were years when the unemployment rate was even lower than now.

So, the indicators currently are good - but not the best ever.

因此,目前的指标是好的,但不是最好的。

President Trump has highlighted the rising value of US financial markets - in particular the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which follows the shares of 30 major US companies.

特朗普总统强调了美国金融市场的不断增值，特别是30家美国主要公司股份的道琼斯工业股票平均价。

It's true it has reached record highs under his administration, largely unfazed by geo-political risks such as rising trade tensions with China or President's Trump's decision last year to ditch the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal.

诚然，特朗普政府领导下的经济处于创纪录的高位，基本上未受到地缘政治风险的影响，比如与中国的贸易紧张关系升级，以及特朗普去年决定放弃跨太平洋合作伙伴关系贸易协定。

Mr Trump's supporters argue that his corporation tax cuts along with his US-focused policies, his clampdown on bureaucracy and his promises of infrastructure investment have all helped.

特朗普的支持者们辩称，他的公司所得税削减，他的以美国为重点的政策、对官僚主义的压制以及他在基础设施投资方面的承诺都有所作用。

So, what's happening in the broader economy with employment and wages?

那么，在更广泛的经济中，就业和工资会发生什么情况呢？

As we've seen, the unemployment rate now stands at 3.7% - the lowest since 1969.

我们已经看到，失业率目前为3.7%，是1969年以来的最低水平。

It's been falling for some years - a downward trend that began during President Barack Obama's time in office.

这一趋势已经下降了数年，这一趋势始于奥巴马总统任职期间。

Ryan Sweet, of Moody's Analytics. points to the changing profile of the US working population as a key factor here.

穆迪的分析师瑞安·斯威特指出，美国劳动人口的变化是这里的一个关键因素。

There is now a greater proportion of older workers and better educated workers, both of which tend to have lower unemployment rates.

现在老年工人和受过良好教育的工人所占比例更大，这两者往往失业率较低。

"The labour market in 2000 had an unemployment rate below 4% - demographic changes since then would suggest the current rate should be even lower than the 3.7% seen in September," Mr Sweet says.

“2000年劳动力市场的失业率低于4%——自那时起，人口变化意味着目前的失业率应该比9月的3.7%还要低，”斯威特说。

Mr Trump has also highlighted record low levels of African-American unemployment in particular.

特朗普还强调指出，非洲裔美国人的失业率尤其低。他是对的，在今年5月，美国黑人失业率下降到5.9%，为1970年代以来的最低水平。

He's right in that in May this year, unemployment for black Americans fell to 5.9%, the lowest figure since the 1970s.

Some US media reporting at the time highlighted some important caveats:

当时一些美国媒体的报道突出了一些重要的告诫：总统的女儿伊万卡最近发推特说，妇女的失业率是65年来的低。在特朗普就职之前，这种情况再次开始减少。

And the president's daughter, Ivanka, recently tweeted that the unemployment rate for women was at a 65-year low.

Again, that had begun to fall prior to Mr Trump taking office.

As for wages, average hourly earnings growth throughout 2017 was between 2.5% and 2.9% - continuing a generally upward trend which began during President Obama's administration.

至于工资，整个2017年的平均小时收入增长率在2.5%到2.9%之间，延续了始于奥巴马总统政府时期的普遍上升趋势。

In September this year, the increase was reported to be 2.8%.

今年9月，据报告，这一增长率为2.8%。

But inflation was at 2.7% in August this year, so adjusting for that means real income growth is much less.

但今年8月的通货膨胀率为2.7%，因此按此进行调整意味着实际收入增长要少得多。

The other measure worth looking at is household income.

另一个值得关注的措施是家庭收入。

Real median household income has been growing for the past three years - but the rate of growth has slowed, according to official figures.

在过去三年中，家庭收入的实际中位数一直在增长，但根据官方数据，增长率有所减缓。

And in September, the US Census Bureau questioned whether its own figure for 2017 - a record high of $61,372 per annum- was that high due to differences in the way surveys had been conducted in previous years.

今年9月，美国人口普查局询问这个每年61,372美元的创纪录高位是否是因为前几年调查方式不同。

It's true that the fiscal stimulus, tax cuts and federal government spending rises under President Trump have helped to provide an impetus to growth - even if by some indicators, not everyone may be feeling the benefit.

确实，在特朗普总统的领导下，财政刺激措施、减税和联邦政府开支的提高有助于推动增长——即使用某些指标来看，并非所有人都能感受到这种好处。

Some analysts question how long the current economic trajectory can continue.

一些分析师质疑目前的经济轨迹能够持续多久。

"We are experiencing a boom now but it is increasingly likely it will bust early in the next decade when the fiscal stimulus fades and the economy struggles to manage the much higher interest rates," says Mark Zandi, of Moody's Analytics.

穆迪分析师马克·桑迪表示：“我们现在正经历繁荣，但随着财政刺激消退，以及经济在管理更高利率方面挣扎，未来十年，破产可能来的更早。”

Read more from Reality Check

Send us your questions

Follow us on Twitter