[(Title)] No-deal Brexit would trigger lengthy UK recession, warns S&P

Britain’s economy will suffer rising unemployment and falling household incomes that would trigger a recession should Theresa May fail to secure a deal to prevent the UK crashing out of the European Union next year, according to analysis by the global rating agency Standard & Poor’s.

根据全球金融分析机构标准普尔预测，如果特蕾莎梅未能达成协议，防止英国明年退出欧盟，英国经济将面临失业上升和家庭收入下降，这将引发衰退。

Property prices would slump and inflation would spike to more than 5% in a scenario that S&P said had become more likely in recent months following deadlock with Brussels over a post-Brexit deal.

In a warning that included a possible downgrade to the UK’s credit rating, which would bring with it an increase in the Treasury’s borrowing costs, S&P said it still expected both sides in the Brexit talks to come to an agreement before next March, when the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union.

标准普尔表示，随着欧盟与布鲁塞尔就英国脱欧协议陷入僵局，近几个月来，这一局面可能会变得更加严重，且通胀率将飙升至5%以上。该金融机构的警告还包括：英国信用评级可能遭到下调，导致财政部借贷成本的增加，标准普尔表示，它仍期望英国退出欧盟谈判双方在明年3月英国计划退出欧盟之前达成协议。

But it warned that the chance of a "no-deal" Brexit had risen in recent months to such an extent that it needed to warn international investors about the potential challenges ahead.

但该组织警告称，英国退欧“无协议”的可能性近几个月来有所增加，以至于它需要警告国际投资者未来可能出现的挑战。伦敦房价可能在两三年内下降20%，与2008年金融危机后的下降类似。

London office prices could fall by 20% over two to three years, similar to the decline following the 2008 financial crash.

Negotiations with the EU are about to enter the final few weeks, and while May has said an agreement is 95% complete, crucial areas, including the fate of the Northern Ireland border, remain unresolved.

与欧盟(EU)的谈判即将进入最后几周，而5月份曾表示，该协议已经完成95%，但关键的领域，包括北爱尔兰边境的命运，仍未得到解决。

A demand by EU negotiator Michel Barnier for a backstop that would keep the Irish border open to trade, even if that meant separating the province from the mainland and creating a border in the Irish sea, has been reject by the prime minister.

欧盟谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶(Michel Barnier)要求获得后台支援，这将使爱尔兰边境保持开放贸易，即使这意味着将爱尔兰与中国大陆隔开，并在爱尔兰海域建立边界，这一要求已被总理拒绝。这一僵局使人们产生了疑虑，即在各方必须寻求批准之前，何时可以商定一项协议。

The impasse has fuelled doubts that a deal can ever be agreed in what time is left before each side must seek ratification.

Coming only a day after the chancellor said the failure to secure a deal would force him to hold an emergency budget, S&P’s analysis joins a welter of independent reports that forecast that a split from the EU without a deal will deala serious blow to the prospects of the UK economy.

就在这位财政大臣表示未能达成协议将迫使他持有紧急预算后的一天，标准普尔的分析加入了一系列独立报告，这些报告预测，如果不达成协议，欧盟的分裂将严重打击英国经济的前景。

Last month rival agency Moody’s said the risks to the British economy had "risen materially" in recent months.

上个月竞争对手穆迪(Moody)表示，近几个月，英国经济所面临的风险已经“实质性上升”。

Failure to agree a deal with Brussels would lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound, triggering higher inflation and a squeeze on real wages lasting for as long as three years, it warned.

该组织警告称，如果不与布鲁塞尔达成协议，英镑的价格将大幅下降，引发更高的通胀，并导致持续长达三年的实际工资紧缩。此外，国际货币基金组织(IMF)和经合组织(OECD)也表示，不达成协议就退出欧盟，对英国、欧盟和全球经济构成重大风险。

Adding to the weight of opinion, the International Monetary Fund and and the OECD have also said that crashing out of the EU without a deal was a material risk to the UK, the EU and the global economy.

The warnings are likely to be dismissed by leading Brexiteers as an extension of the Treasury’s "project fear", which predicted steep falls in household incomes, house prices and inflation.

英国退欧派领导人可能会否认这一警告，认为这是财政部“项目恐惧”的延续，预计家庭收入、房价和通货膨胀将急剧下降。

Jacob Rees-Mogg and Iain Duncan Smith told the chancellor ahead of the budget that he was being too gloomy about Britain’s economic prospects outside the EU, even if it meant coping with trade barriers at EU border posts.

雅各布·里斯-莫格（Jacob Rees-Mogg）和伊恩·邓肯·史密斯（Iain Duncan Smith）在预算前向总理表示，他对英国在欧盟以外的经济前景过于悲观，即使这意味着要应对欧盟边境站的贸易壁垒。里斯-莫格辩称，英国经济可以通过脱离欧盟而得到自由，尽管他更愿意达成一项协议，确保无摩擦的贸易，但如果多年来英国与欧盟的规则挂钩，那将是适得其反的。

Rees-Mogg argued that Britain’s economy would be set free by leaving the EU, and though he preferred a deal to secure frictionless trade, this would be counterproductive if it tied the UK to EU rules for many years.

But Britain’s national income has already grown more slowly this year than expected prior to the EU referendum, with GDP growth below its previous trend of 2% to 2.5% and with wages only just inching ahead of inflation this year.

但今年的英国国民收入增长已经比欧盟公投前的预期慢得多，GDP增长低于此前的2%至2.5%的增长率，工资仅略高于今年的通胀率。

S&P said leaving the EU without a deal would make matters much worse, pushing the UK into a moderate recession lasting between a year and 15 months, with GDP contracting by 1.2% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020.

标普表示，不达成协议的离开欧盟将令情况更糟，促使英国陷入持续一年到15个月的中等衰退，2019年GDP下降1.2%，2020年下降1.5%。此后经济将恢复增长，尽管增长速度将保持温和。

After that, the economy would return to growth, it said, though the pace of growth would be moderate.

"By 2021, economic output would still be 5.5% less than what would have been achieved in a scenario with an orderly exit and transition period for the UK," it said in its report, Countdown To Brexit: No Deal Moving Into Sight.

“到2021年，经济产出仍将比英国有条不紊的退出和过渡期方案少5.5%，”该报告称，“英国倒计时：目前还看不到任何协议。

S&P said high street banks would be caught up in the downturn, though efforts to shore up their reserves over the last eight years would provide protection against rising corporate insolvencies and weaker house price values.

标普表示，尽管过去8年上调存款准备金率的举措将提供保护，避免企业破产和房地产价格走低等风险，但高层银行将陷入低迷。住房协会也将受到房价下降的财政压力。与此同时，保险公司需要计划下调英国的信用评级，这将提高它们的借贷成本。

Housing associations would also come under financial pressure from a fall in house values.

Meanwhile, insurers would need to plan for a downgrade in the UK’s credit rating, which would increase their borrowing costs.